Kayihura; The Fall of A Party


As I read the last Sunday Vision’s Headline (Kayihura’s first 100 hours in Jail), I recalled the geographical process called Weathering.

At its simplest, Weathering is the breaking down of previously intact rocks or collections of rocks. Depending on the intensity of the environmental forces at play, the strength and composition of the individual rocks, as well as the strength of the bond between the adjoined rocks, the weathering process could span billions of archaeological years. Eventually, a time comes when, through chemical reaction or physical interaction, formerly intact pieces of rock disintegrate.

Initially, the weakest and most vulnerable pieces chip off without notice, the process becoming visible only when the harder, and more significant components of the original mass shard off. In the end, what remains (if anything at all) of the former are relics. In their place, the prevailing forces of nature craft new physical features upon which they, in time, cause to fragment. The Irony here is, the very forces that forge together the original land mass, are the same forces that reduce it to fossil.

I am no kayihura sympathiser. I believe the man laid his own bed and it was only a matter of time before he got to lay in it and feel its discomfort. However, make no mistake, the fall of kayihura carries a lot of significance. The NRM regime is crumbling.

After over 3 decades in power, the very conditions that catapulted the NRM into power have eventually eaten to the core of its once formidable cohesion. Nothing depicts this chaos than the ensuing tussle between the Uganda Police and a combination of the other security organs. In this episode, Kayihura (un) fortunately proved the weaker, most vulnerable and exposed. He had to take the involuntary tumble. Going by his antics, as he rolls further away from the realm he once fervently served, Kayihura’s fall will generate tremors, whose consequences could be far reaching unlike his fallen comrades for past.

The smaller rocks are long washed away. The gnashing is now between the big wigs. The NRM is weathered to the core, its grip on power slowly but surely waning. Its appeal is so low; 5 billion shillings can’t secure them a win in a municipal by-election.

The elements that knit the NRM together for power have since evaporated, eroded or turned. Today they act to make former comrades into foes, pitting them against each other; picking them off, one after the other. Over time, the story of the 27 guns fades into a myth, as the once mighty NRM reduces to a fossil; a time stamp of what was once the hope of a nation.


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